A new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates that Russia has suffered around 1.2 million casualties killed, wounded or missing since launching its invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago a scale of losses not seen for a major military power since World War II.
Despite the heavy toll the report finds that Russia has achieved only limited territorial gains, increasing its control of Ukrainian land by about 12 percent since 2022. CSIS analysts challenge claims of an inevitable Russian victory, noting that Ukraine’s layered defenses including trenches, mines, drones, artillery, and fortifications have significantly slowed Moscow’s advances. Ukrainian casualties are estimated at 500,000 to 600,000, compared with Russia’s far higher losses.
The study estimates Russian battlefield deaths at 275,000 to 325,000 while Ukraine’s fatalities range between 100,000 and 140,000. Analysts conclude that the data suggests that Russia is hardly winning.
Russia’s losses exceed those from all its post World War II conflicts combined including Afghanistan and Chechnya. Meanwhile, Russian advances have often been measured in yards per day with overall gains of less than 1.5 percent of Ukrainian territory since 2022.
The report also warns of growing economic strain, citing weak growth, inflation, labor shortages, and declining longterm economic prospects.
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