Kalshi’s election prediction markets recorded $454.2 million in 30-day trading volume as traders focused on congressional, Senate and gubernatorial contests ahead of the Nov. 3 US midterm elections.
WASHINGTON: Millions of dollars are flowing into US election prediction markets as traders place financial bets on congressional, Senate and gubernatorial races in the November 3, 2026, midterm elections, turning political contests into a major attraction for online trading platforms.
One of the platforms drawing attention is Kalshi, which allows participants to trade contracts linked to the likelihood of specific events. Although commonly described as political betting, these transactions are classified as event contracts and operate under the regulatory framework of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
According to figures reported for Kalshi’s election markets, trading volume reached approximately $454.2 million over the previous 30 days. On October 31 alone, transactions worth around $38.3 million were recorded. These figures cover multiple election-related markets and do not represent money wagered exclusively on the November 3 midterm elections.
TickerTracker
Democrats’ chances in House and Senate markets
Control of the House of Representatives has emerged as one of the most actively traded election markets.
The House control market recorded approximately $177.6 million in trading volume. At the time of the reported assessment, Kalshi traders assigned Democrats a 93% probability of gaining control, compared with 7% for Republicans.
The Senate control market recorded approximately $133.9 million in trading volume. Democratic control was assigned a 72% probability, while Republicans stood at 28%.
A separate Senate-related market recorded another $25.5 million in trading volume. This represented a distinct market and should not be confused with the broader Senate control contract.
These percentages reflect market prices and trader expectations at a particular time, rather than confirmed election results or estimates of the candidates’ share of the popular vote.
Texas Senate contest attracts major trading activity
The Texas Senate race has become one of the most closely watched individual contests on the platform.
Democratic candidate James Talarico is challenging Republican Ken Paxton, with approximately $68.5 million in trading volume reported for their contest.
The supplied market snapshot placed Talarico’s probability of victory at 69%, compared with 31% for Paxton. However, prediction-market prices fluctuate as traders respond to polling data, campaign developments and other political information.
The contest has attracted particular attention because Texas has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. Its outcome is also being closely watched by political observers assessing the state’s changing electoral dynamics.
The Texas gubernatorial race is attracting separate interest. Republican incumbent Greg Abbott is competing against Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa, with the reported market assessment assigning Abbott a 66% probability of victory and Hinojosa 34%.
Other Senate races draw millions
Several other Senate contests are also attracting substantial trading activity.
In Maine, approximately $16.5 million had been traded on the race between Democratic candidate Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins. The reported market assessment assigned Jackson a 69% probability of victory, while Collins stood at 31%.
Other closely watched contests include Abdul El-Sayed versus Mike Rogers in Michigan, Sherrod Brown versus Jon Husted in Ohio, Josh Turek versus Ashley Hinson in Iowa, and Adam Hamilton versus Roger Marshall in Kansas.
Trading activity in these races continues to reflect changing market expectations as new polling information, campaign announcements and political developments emerge.
Gubernatorial elections attract traders
The prediction-market activity also extends to gubernatorial elections across 36 states.
In Ohio, the contest between Democratic candidate Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy recorded approximately $7.6 million in trading volume. The reported market assessment assigned Acton a 79% probability of victory, compared with 21% for Ramaswamy.
Florida’s gubernatorial contest between Republican Byron Donalds and Democrat David Jolly is another closely followed race. Elections in Georgia, Nevada, Kansas and other competitive states are also attracting attention from prediction-market participants.
How political trading works on Kalshi
Kalshi allows users to purchase contracts based on whether a specified political outcome will occur.
For example, a trader purchasing a contract for 70 cents that pays $1 if a particular candidate wins would receive a 30-cent gross return before applicable fees if the prediction proves correct.
If the candidate loses, the contract becomes worthless, meaning the trader loses the amount invested, along with any applicable fees.
Contract prices change as participants respond to opinion polls, campaign developments, public statements and other information. A contract priced at 70 cents generally represents a market-implied probability of approximately 70%, although fees, spreads and market conditions can affect the relationship.
Trading volume also requires careful interpretation. A market reporting $50 million in volume does not necessarily mean that amount was invested on one candidate. The figure can include transactions on both sides and repeated buying and selling of contracts.
Political prediction markets raise transparency concerns
The growing popularity of election prediction markets has generated debate about their role in democratic processes.
Supporters argue that these platforms aggregate information, expectations and financial incentives, potentially providing another way to assess political developments alongside traditional opinion polls.
Critics, however, have raised concerns about transparency, potential market manipulation and the influence of financial interests on political discourse.
As Americans vote on November 3, candidates will compete for control of political institutions while prediction-market participants monitor the results and changing contract prices.
For traders, the election could bring financial gains or losses depending on whether their predictions prove correct. For the wider political system, the growing trading activity highlights how financial markets are increasingly intersecting with electoral politics.
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