Climate Impact Lab researchers warn that an unusually strong El Niño could increase extreme heat exposure and heat-related mortality across vulnerable regions.
SINGAPORE: Pakistan is among the countries that could face increased exposure to extreme heat if an unusually strong El Niño develops and persists into 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab.
The researchers estimate that extreme heat associated with the weather phenomenon could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide through February 2027. They also project that the number of extremely hot days could rise by about 44% compared with normal years.
The projected deaths specifically relate to extreme heat during the first nine months of the event. Researchers also warned that El Niño can create wider climate-related risks, including drought, wildfires and disruptions to normal rainfall patterns.
Nigeria is projected to record the largest number of additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027, with an estimated 31,400 deaths. Indonesia follows with about 19,300, while Sudan is projected to record approximately 17,600.
Across the Sahel region, including Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, researchers estimate around 66,800 additional deaths over the six-month period.
Several Southeast Asian countries are also expected to experience significant heat-related impacts. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths. India is projected to see about 15,800 additional heat-related deaths.
The researchers said Pakistan and other countries in the Northern Hemisphere could face greater vulnerability during the summer if the El Niño pattern continues into 2027. The Climate Impact Lab described the projected conditions as a “postcard from the future,” saying the extreme temperatures could offer an indication of conditions that climate change may make increasingly common in the coming decades.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the projections could help decision-makers identify areas where emergency measures may reduce heat-related deaths.
Researchers have pointed to measures including early-warning systems, cooling facilities and stronger protections for outdoor workers as potential ways to reduce the effects of extreme heat.
The Climate Impact Lab said it will continue updating its projections as the El Niño event develops.
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