Column Title: Qalam Kahani
Written By :- Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah
This is the talk of July 30. In the entire country there was noise that “the system has collapsed”. From everywhere a “voice” started coming that “Government departure is certain, whether it happens in the morning or in the evening”. Then on August 18 the Supreme Court gave a verdict. The prisoner of Adiala was also given that relief which was not even asked for. Again there was an uproar. “The direction of the winds has changed, a deal has been done, the days of the government have been counted”. After the 18th, August 24 came. And the international credit rating agency Moody’s upgraded Pakistan’s sovereign credit rating from “Caa1” to “B3”.
The matter had started from July 30, 2026. In these 26 days, a lot of water has flowed under the bridges. Whatever anyone said, it became part of history. But the fresh breeze that has come from “Moody’s”, its matter is something else entirely. The heart desires to forget everything.
According to the statement issued by Moody’s on Monday: “The decision to upgrade Pakistan’s rating to B3 reflects the expectation that due to improvement in governance and policy making, the government will be successful in maintaining the recent improvement in the country’s external sector and in further strengthening the fiscal indicators.
According to Moody’s, since Pakistan’s rating was set at Caa1 in August 2025, the risks of external vulnerabilities faced by the country have further decreased. Foreign exchange reserves are continuously increasing, which has been strengthened by the continuity of economic stability”.
Moody’s did not stop here only. It goes further and says that “Due to the reduction in the interest rate, the decrease in the cost of domestic borrowing and the improvement in the fiscal situation have produced a significant improvement in Pakistan’s debt repayment capacity. The improvement in Pakistan’s credit profile is also proof of the fact that the country’s economy is developing more capacity to deal with external shocks compared to previous periods, which also includes the Middle East conflict”.
Moody’s said that “By the end of July 2026, the foreign exchange reserves of the State Bank of Pakistan had reached approximately 17 billion dollars, which were 14 billion dollars at the end of July 2025. These reserves are sufficient for approximately three months of imports. Moody’s said that the continuous implementation of the reform program carried out with the support of the IMF has strengthened the credibility of policies, economic stability has been maintained and the way for funding from government and international financial institutions has been paved. Pakistan has also gradually regained access to international financial markets. During this, in April 2026 Pakistan issued a 750 million dollar Eurobond with a three-year term, while in May 2026 it issued its first 1.75 billion Chinese Yuan, i.e. approximately 250 million dollar Panda bond in China’s local bond market. This development helped Pakistan on one hand to increase foreign exchange reserves and on the other hand to fulfill all its external financial obligations during the fiscal year 2026.
The rating agency has expressed the expectation that if the government maintains progress on the IMF program, funds continue to be received on time from government and international partners, and Pakistan’s gradual access to global financial markets continues, then by the end of fiscal year 2027 foreign exchange reserves could increase to approximately 19 to 20 billion dollars, and in fiscal year 2028 to 20 to 21 billion dollars”.
The rating agency expressed the expectation that “The recent improvement in Pakistan’s debt repayment capacity may not be temporary but could prove to be relatively sustainable, based on the continuity of economic stability. According to Moody’s, although inflation can still be affected by changes in the exchange rate and external shocks, however, a strong buffer in the external sector, a more stable economic environment, and the government’s commitment to maintaining fiscal discipline will help in limiting inflationary pressure and in maintaining the improvement that has occurred in debt repayment capacity.
According to Moody’s, an increase in global energy prices, especially due to geopolitical tensions, is a major risk regarding inflation, however Moody’s believes that Pakistan’s strengthening policy framework and the economy’s better resilience capacity will help to some extent in reducing these negative effects”.
What did Moody’s say. The heart desires to write it once again. It was said “There has been improvement in governance and policy making”. It was also written that “The government has been successful in maintaining the recent improvement in the country’s external sector and in further strengthening the fiscal indicators”. It also writes that “The risks of external vulnerabilities faced by Pakistan have further decreased”. Words like increase in foreign exchange reserves, successful continuity of the IMF program, economic stability, Pakistan’s gradual access to global markets, improvement in debt repayment capacity, Pakistan’s strengthening policy framework and the economy’s better resilience capacity were written repeatedly by Moody’s.
This is the talk of July 30. In the entire country there was noise that “the system has collapsed”. From everywhere a “voice” started coming that “Governments departure is certain, whether it happens in the morning or in the evening”. The government is here. And the interesting thing is that the system is also here. And it is delivering. This is what “Moody’s” has said. The stamp of “performance” of Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif and his government has been put by “Moody’s”. Now it must be said that “This is the system that will run”.
جاتے جاتے حیدر علی آتش کا شعر سنتے جائیں
بڑا شور سنتے تھے پہلو میں دل کا
جو چیرا تو اک قطرۂ خوں نہ نکلا
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